22. Dec. 21 - Value reversal and de-risking today!

Updated: Feb 20



Today is the 2nd day CD Micro came back below 40% which is a confirmation indicating a clear "release" of market participants. At market close our indicator for the short term outlook "CD Micro" shows 36%.


Looking at the detailed table we can clearly see which factors are driving the overall score and where risk still remains:

  • AD ratio NYSE came back dramatically indicating strength in value stocks.

  • VIX range and slope came back indicating de-risking in short and long term positions.

  • Insider are buying again.

  • However, the VIX percentile rank and the options market is still indicating strong hedging behavior.

  • Tech stocks (NASDAQ) did not recover as value did confirming a trend towards more secure positions.

The data predicts a quiet market for the upcoming days proceeding in a range or a slightly bullish direction (value preferred over tech).

We opened options positions (short put spreads) in S&P500.

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Here is a simple, recent Use Case: sell if CD micro is running over 50% strong sell if CD micro >70% buy if CD micro is back <50% strong buy if CD micro is <40% ​ Results for Nov. 2021: CD micro indic